Allies or ATMs? How Trump Turned the Gulf Into a War Cash Cow

This is not a story about military strategy or geopolitical calculation. It is a story about trust - what happens when a superpower treats its closest allies as ATMs, when a security guarantee becomes a ransom note, and when the men who paid billions to secure American protection realize that they have been paying for the privilege of becoming targets. It is the story of the greatest betrayal of the modern Middle East, told from the perspective of those who wrote the checks and watched their cities burn.

I am an Egyptian ex-banker who spent years watching the Gulf’s sovereign wealth funds flow into American coffers. I saw the deals signed, the bases expanded, the promises exchanged. I also saw what happened when the war began - the missiles that struck the cities I had visited, the friends who lost everything, the slow, sickening realization that the security umbrella was never meant to protect them. This is their story. It is also a warning: when the bill comes due, the ones who pay are never the ones who started the fire.

THE SECURITY TRAP

The Bargain That Was Never Meant to Be Kept

For decades, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states - Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman - anchored their defense strategy in a simple bargain. Host American bases. Purchase American weapons. Denominate oil sales in dollars. And in return, receive American protection. The assumption was ironclad: US military presence would guarantee security.

The infrastructure of this bargain was staggering. Qatar spent more than $8 billion to expand Al Udeid Air Base, which serves as the forward headquarters of US Central Command and houses 10,000 American personnel. Bahrain hosts the US Fifth Fleet, the naval command that patrols the Arabian Gulf. Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia accommodate tens of thousands of American troops across multiple facilities.

The Gulf states purchased tens of billions of dollars in American weaponry - F-15s, F-16s, Patriot batteries, THAAD systems, advanced fighter jets - on the understanding that this investment would guarantee their security against regional threats, particularly Iran. The assumption was not merely hopeful. It was the foundation of Gulf strategic thinking for nearly half a century.

But that foundation was built on sand. As events in September 2025 would demonstrate, the American security umbrella was never designed to protect the Gulf. It was designed to protect American interests - and when those interests diverged from the interests of the Gulf states, the umbrella would close.

The Doha Strike: When Protection Failed

On 9 September 2025, Israeli fighter jets launched a strike on Doha, the capital of Qatar. The target: Hamas leaders who were present in the Qatari capital as part of ceasefire negotiations that Washington itself had been mediating. The Israeli aircraft flew unopposed over Jordanian and Saudi airspace, entered Qatari airspace, bombed their targets, and retreated safely.

The formidable US defense apparatus at Al Udeid Air Base - the largest American military facility in the Middle East, expanded with billions of Qatari dollars - remained conspicuously silent. Not a single Patriot missile was launched. Not a single American aircraft scrambled to intercept. The base that Qatar had funded to protect its skies did nothing while foreign warplanes bombed its capital.

The message was unmistakable: the primary mission of American bases is to serve American interests, not to defend host nations - particularly when the attacker is Israel. The Qatari prime minister’s helpless lament captured the essence of what analysts would later call the “security trap”: “We are betrayed”.

The betrayal was compounded by Washington’s response. The White House took hours to react, with the US president describing the bombing as feeling “very badly” while stopping short of any condemnation. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt acknowledged that the attack did not advance American goals but simultaneously validated the attack’s objective, describing the elimination of Hamas as “a worthy goal”.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, emboldened, warned Qatar to expel Hamas leaders, declaring, “if you don’t, we will.” It took weeks, and a personal phone call from the White House, for Netanyahu to offer a belated apology and pledge not to repeat the attack. But the damage was already done. The Gulf states had seen the truth: when the moment of crisis came, America would not protect them.

III. The Warning That Went Unheeded

If the Doha strike revealed the conditional nature of American protection, what followed exposed its deeper perils. The Gulf states should have heeded the warning. They should have begun diversifying their security arrangements, seeking alternative partners, reducing their dependence on a power that had already demonstrated its willingness to sacrifice their safety for Israeli interests.

But they did not. The deals continued. The investments flowed. The illusion persisted.

The reason for this blindness was not naivety. It was the sheer weight of the sunk costs - trillions of dollars already committed, decades of strategic alignment already built, a military infrastructure so thoroughly integrated with American systems that disentangling it would require years of painful transition. The Gulf states were trapped. And the trap was about to close.

THE $4 TRILLION TOUR

The May 2025 Gulf Tour

In May 2025, Donald Trump embarked on what was described as a “historic Gulf tour.” Over four days, he visited Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates - three of the wealthiest nations in the world. His goal was not diplomacy. It was transaction.

The results were staggering. By the end of the tour, Trump had secured deals, investments, and commitments worth nearly $4 trillion with the three Gulf nations. In Saudi Arabia alone, the White House announced that the kingdom would invest $600 billion in the United States, including a historic defense deal valued at nearly $142 billion - the largest of its kind between the two nations. Trump later suggested the figure could reach $1 trillion.

Saudi Arabia also signed 145 additional agreements worth more than $300 billion during a major investment conference attended by prominent American billionaires and executives. The agreements spanned energy, defense, mining, artificial intelligence, and technology. A $5 billion energy investment fund. A $5 billion “New Era” aerospace and defense technology fund. A $4 billion global sports fund. The list went on.

In Qatar, Trump announced that the emirate would invest $10 billion to expand the Al Udeid Air Base - the very base that would later fail to protect Qatari skies - in addition to $42 billion in new defense agreements with the United States. The agreements included advanced air defense systems, combat support aircraft, drones, and the THAAD missile defense system. Qatar Airways also committed to purchasing up to 210 Boeing widebody jets.

In the UAE, Trump secured a preliminary agreement allowing the country to import 500,000 Nvidia AI chips annually - a deal that had been blocked under the Biden administration over concerns about technology transfer to China. The UAE also made significant investments in American defense and technology sectors.

Trump boasted about the unprecedented scale of the deals, speaking at a business forum in Doha: “Never before has a tour secured between $3.5 and $4 trillion in just four or five days”. He announced that his administration was targeting $10 trillion in investments during his second term. The Gulf states, flush with sovereign wealth funds estimated at around $5 trillion in assets, were eager to deepen their economic and defense ties with Washington.

The Price of the Promise

What did the Gulf states receive in exchange for these trillions? Promises. Promises of protection. Promises of stability. Promises that the American security umbrella would shield them from their enemies.

The centerpiece of these promises was the “Board of Peace” - a diplomatic initiative that Trump announced amid much fanfare, presenting it as a framework for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and promoting regional stability. The Gulf states pledged more than $4 billion in combined financial support to the Board of Peace, signaling their commitment to a peaceful resolution of the region’s conflicts.

For the Gulf states, the calculation was simple: invest in American prosperity, and America would invest in their security. Buy American weapons, and American soldiers would defend them. Align with Washington, and Washington would have their backs.

They were wrong.

The War That Was Not Theirs

On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched a coordinated military campaign against Iran. The strikes targeted Iranian leadership and military infrastructure, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The war was not defensive. It was preemptive, calculated, and deliberate.

The Gulf states had spent months lobbying against exactly such an escalation. They had provided explicit assurances to Tehran that they would not allow Washington to use their territory or airspace for combat operations. They had sought to maintain neutrality in the growing tensions between Washington and Tehran. They had warned that a war would devastate their economies, their security, their futures.

None of it mattered. The war came anyway.

The GCC has publicly stated its opposition to the war initiated by Israel and the US on February 28 and has denied granting the US permission to use their soil for military strikes. However, growing evidence has surfaced showing US forces launching rockets from the soil of the Persian Gulf countries while American warplanes have used the airspace of those countries during bombing missions over Iran.

The Gulf states had been turned into launchpads for a war they did not want, against a neighbor they would have to live with long after the American bombers went home.

THE $5 TRILLION RANSOM

The Demand That Shook the Gulf

By the third week of the war, the conflict had not gone as planned. Iran had not collapsed. The regime had not been overthrown. Instead, Tehran had turned the tables, targeting American bases and Gulf infrastructure alike. The war was grinding on, costs were spiraling, and the American public was growing weary.

It was at this moment that the leaks began.

Omani political analyst and journalist Salem Al-Jahouri, speaking to BBC Arabic on 20 March 2026, revealed that the White House was exerting unprecedented financial pressure on Gulf allies. “We are now seeing leaks indicating that the US president is asking the (P)GCC states to hand over roughly $5 trillion if they wish to see this war carry on, and if they want it halted, they must pay $2.5 trillion to America as compensation for what has been done so far,” Jahouri said.

The numbers were staggering beyond comprehension. Five trillion dollars to continue the war - more than the combined GDP of most nations. Two and a half trillion dollars to stop it - as if the United States were demanding reimbursement for a service the Gulf states had never requested.

Al-Jahouri described the pressure as both military and economic. “That is entirely accurate. The (Persian) Gulf Cooperation Council countries are under significant pressure, both in military and economic terms,” he said when asked about reports of White House pressure.

Other media outlets confirmed the story. The Jerusalem Post reported that White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed Trump “would be interested in calling on Arab countries to pay for the cost of the Iran war,” adding that she thinks Trump would have more to say on the issue. The White House was no longer denying the demand. It was normalizing it.

The War Ransom: Extortion in Plain Sight

Analysts across the region used a word that had rarely been applied to US-Gulf relations: ransom.

“The United States has asked Arab partners in the Persian Gulf to pay a staggering sum if they want the war with Iran to reach a definite conclusion,” the Press TV report stated. The coercion came as Trump pushed for deeper participation from Persian Gulf Arab countries in the joint US-Israeli aggression against Tehran.

The term was not hyperbolic. The structure of the demand - pay to continue, pay to stop - was the structure of extortion. The Gulf states were being asked to fund a war that had already devastated their economies, their security, their infrastructure. And they were being given no good options.

If they refused to pay, the war would continue, and they would continue to suffer the consequences. If they paid, they would be rewarding the very behavior that had endangered them - and signaling to Washington that extortion worked.

The Gulf states were trapped in a security trap, and now a financial one as well.

The Economic Devastation

Even before the ransom demand became public, the war had inflicted catastrophic damage on the Gulf economies.

Iran’s retaliation for the US-Israeli strikes focused not only on Israel but on American bases and associated targets across the Gulf. Oil and gas facilities linked to American companies were struck. Energy infrastructure was damaged. Tourism - the crown jewel of the UAE’s economic diversification strategy - was shattered.

The most devastating blow was the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This vital shipping corridor acts as an economic lifeline for the region, and its shuttering caused billions of dollars in lost oil revenue. Revenue losses from energy exports and tourism inflicted severe economic damage on the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain.

The disruption to global aviation was described by Reuters as the largest since the COVID-19 pandemic. Approximately 40,000 flights were cancelled. Major airports in Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi - hubs that had been built at enormous cost to connect the East and West - stood empty.

For over a decade, nations like the UAE and Qatar had spent billions marketing themselves as safe, luxury destinations. That reputation, painstakingly built, was now in jeopardy. The allure of safety had been shattered by missiles flying overhead, hitting civilian buildings, oil tankers, and crucial energy sites.

Three of the four largest Persian Gulf countries were reassessing trillions of dollars in sovereign wealth fund holdings abroad, which included $1.2 trillion previously pledged for investment in the American economy following Trump’s trip to the region in May 2025. The investments that were supposed to secure American protection were now being reconsidered - because the protection had never materialized.

The Infrastructure of Destruction

The Reuters report detailed what it described as “catastrophic damage” to the region’s infrastructure. From the total closure of major airspace to the cancellation of approximately 40,000 flights, the crisis represented the largest disruption to global aviation since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Iran struck oil and gas facilities in the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain. In the UAE alone, Iran launched almost 1,800 drones and missiles during the first weeks of the war, targeting luxury hotels, Dubai International Airport, and oil infrastructure. Authorities in Abu Dhabi reported that gas operations had to be shut down after strikes on the Habshan gas facility and Bab field.

The cost of the war to the Gulf states cannot be calculated in dollars alone. The UAE had spent years positioning itself as a global hub for finance, tourism, and technology. Dubai’s skyline - the Burj Khalifa, the Palm Islands, the gleaming towers - was a monument to the vision of a post-oil future. That vision assumed stability. It assumed that the American security umbrella would protect the investments that made the Gulf wealthy.

That assumption was now ash.

THE VOICE THAT SPOKE

The Letter That Shook the White House

In the midst of this devastation, a voice emerged from the Gulf. Not from a government official, bound by diplomatic niceties and strategic calculations. From a businessman. A billionaire. A man whose name was on towers in Dubai, whose hotels welcomed visitors from around the world, whose wealth and influence were woven into the fabric of the UAE’s rise.

On 5 March 2026, Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor - the founder of the Al Habtoor Group, a man worth an estimated $2.3 billion, a figure close to UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan - published an open letter on X addressed directly to Donald Trump.

The letter was written in Arabic. It was long. And it asked questions that no one from the Gulf had dared to ask so publicly, so plainly, so without apology.

“Who gave you the authority to drag our region into a war with Iran? And on what basis did you make such a dangerous decision?” Al Habtoor wrote, addressing Trump directly.

He asked whether Trump had calculated the collateral damage before pulling the trigger. Whether he had considered that the first to suffer would be the countries of the region. Whether the decision was his alone or the result of pressure from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

“You have placed the Gulf Cooperation Council and the Arab countries at the heart of a danger they did not choose,” Al Habtoor wrote. “Thank God, we are strong and capable of defending ourselves. We have armies and defences that protect our homelands. But the question remains: Who gave you permission to turn our region into a battlefield?”

The Questions That Could Not Be Answered

Al Habtoor’s letter was not a diplomatic protest. It was an interrogation.

He pointed out that Trump had broken his promises of not getting involved in foreign wars. He noted that during his second term, Trump had ordered foreign military interventions in seven countries - Somalia, Iraq, Yemen, Nigeria, Syria, Iran, and Venezuela - in addition to naval operations in the Caribbean and the eastern Pacific Ocean. He noted that Trump had directed more than 658 foreign airstrikes in his first year in office, equaling the total strikes of Joe Biden’s entire presidency.

He cited the Institute for Policy Studies to calculate the cost of the war: between $40 and $65 billion for direct military operations, rising to $210 billion if the conflict continued for several weeks. And he noted that this money came from American taxpayers - the same people Trump had promised peace and prosperity.

He pointed to the Board of Peace initiative, which Trump had announced with great fanfare, and asked a devastating question: “Before the ink had even dried on the Board of Peace initiative that you announced in the name of peace and stability, we now find ourselves facing military escalation that puts the entire region at risk. Where have those initiatives gone?”

And then he asked the question that cut to the heart of the betrayal: “Who will pay the price for the tensions imposed on us as a result of a conflict we have no part in among Iran, America and Israel? Our economies, our security, and the stability of our peoples are not arenas for settling scores among the great powers”.

The Disappearance

For a few days, the letter lived on X, translated and shared, discussed and debated. It was a sensation. It was the highest-profile public censure of Trump from the Arabian Gulf since the war began.

And then, suddenly, it was gone. Al Habtoor deleted the post.

When asked why, he told The Washington Post that he had been asked by “friends” in the UAE and the United States to remove it. It was not the right time, they told him, to “upset the Americans.” The construction magnate, who has a net worth of $2.3 billion, told the Post that he deleted his message due to requests from friends who suggested not jeopardizing ties between the countries.

The deletion was a small tragedy. It was a reminder of the constraints under which even the wealthiest and most influential men in the Gulf operate. Al Habtoor could speak his mind - but only until the phone rang. When it did, he had to choose between his conscience and his country’s strategic alignment. He chose alignment.

But the words had already been spoken. The questions had already been asked. And they could not be taken back.

The Betrayal of the Bases

The war had exposed something that the Gulf states had long suspected but never wanted to confirm: the American security umbrella was a lie.

When the United States and Israel launched their strikes on Iran, the Gulf states found themselves in an impossible position. The very bases designed to protect them had become magnets for attack. Their expensive air defense systems - Patriot batteries, THAAD interceptors, advanced fighter jets - were pressed into service not to defend Gulf territories but to shield American assets that had drawn fire in the first place. And even this defensive effort carried its own risk: according to Iranian warnings, any attempt to intercept missiles targeting US bases would be interpreted as participation in aggression, transforming the defender into a legitimate target.

The United States, meanwhile, demonstrated where its true priorities lay. As tensions escalated, American forces quietly evacuated key assets from exposed Gulf bases. Satellite imagery confirmed that aerial refueling aircraft were gradually withdrawn from Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base - from 15 planes on 9 February to none by 26 February. US naval vessels departed Bahrain’s port for open sea. These assets were relocated to more secure positions - notably, to Israel.

F-22 Raptors arrived at Ovda Airbase in southern Israel. Refueling aircraft parked at Ben-Gurion Airport. American air defense systems were repositioned to help protect Israeli territory. The message could not have been clearer: when the crisis came, Washington’s first instinct was to protect its forces and its Israeli ally, leaving Gulf hosts to manage the consequences as best they could.

The Growing Resentment

Behind the scenes, resentment was mounting in Gulf capitals. According to anonymous regional sources cited by Reuters, three sources confirmed that “resentment is mounting behind the scenes in Arab Gulf capitals.” These nations felt they had been dragged into a conflict they neither initiated nor endorsed, yet they were now forced to bear the staggering economic and military costs.

Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, the president of the Emirates Policy Center, summarized the regional frustration: “This is not our war. We did not want this conflict, yet we are paying the price with our security and our economy”.

Gulf governments had previously provided explicit assurances to Tehran that they would not allow Washington to use their territory or airspace for combat operations. Despite these diplomatic efforts to maintain neutrality, Iran had launched waves of drone and missile strikes across the region.

The war had prompted Gulf states to reassess their security dependence on Washington and to consider the eventual possibility of entering into new regional security arrangements with Tehran, even as trust in Iran collapsed. Fawaz Gerges of the London School of Economics stated that for decades, relations between Washington and the Gulf states were based on an implicit understanding: “Gulf energy and capital” - including hundreds of billions of dollars spent on American weaponry, advanced technology, goods, and services - in exchange for American protection. That understanding had now been shattered.

Gerges believes the war has fundamentally altered the Gulf’s perception of the United States. The GCC states are no longer confident that American protection is reliable. They are actively exploring alternatives - China, Turkey, Russia, and even a modus vivendi with Iran itself.

The Security Trap

The events of recent weeks have exposed a harsh reality that Gulf Arab states have long tried to avoid: the American security umbrella - secured at enormous cost and sustained through decades of strategic alignment - offers protection only when it serves Washington’s interests, not necessarily when it is most needed.

The March 2026 escalation between the United States, Israel, and Iran has transformed the GCC states from protected allies into unwilling battlefields, exposing the fundamental contradiction at the heart of their security architecture. For decades, the GCC states anchored their defense strategy in a simple bargain: host American bases, purchase American weapons, and receive American protection in return. That assumption has now been shattered.

The trap is complete. Gulf states cannot fully trust the American umbrella, which has proven conditional and self-interested. They cannot expel US forces without exposing themselves to greater dangers. They cannot build independent defense capabilities quickly enough to fill the gap. And they cannot unite in a common regional stance, divided as they are by competing visions, rivalries, and the legacy of normalization with Israel.

The architecture of alignment, built over decades and purchased at the price of trillions, has become a cage. And the keys are held in Washington and Tel Aviv, where Gulf interests are, at best, a secondary consideration.

The New Regional Order

The war has not only damaged the Gulf’s economy and security; it has reshaped the geopolitical landscape of the entire region. As the United States has proven itself an unreliable partner, other powers have stepped into the vacuum.

China has been the quiet beneficiary of America’s missteps. The tactical evolution of Iran’s military operations is a direct result of its deepening strategic alliance with Russia, which has provided targeting intelligence and advanced drone technology. But China’s influence has grown through economic channels - trade, investment, infrastructure - rather than military ones. For Gulf governments quietly viewing Beijing as a more predictable and stable superpower, the temptation to diversify is strong.

Turkey, too, has positioned itself as an alternative security partner. Its drone technology, battle-tested in conflicts across the region, has proven effective. Its military bases in Qatar provide a counterweight to American presence. And its leadership has been careful not to alienate either Washington or Tehran, maintaining a balancing act that the Gulf states now seek to emulate.

The Iran war is a strategic catastrophe for the United States. It has disrupted American alliances, empowered a regime more hostile to the United States than the one Trump sought to remove, and unleashed anti-Americanism across the region. The Gulf states, once America’s closest Arab allies, are now actively reconsidering the relationship that has defined their foreign policy for half a century.

The Reckoning That Is Coming

Khalaf Al Habtoor deleted his letter. The billionaire said he did not want to offend anyone. His friends in the US and the UAE had asked him to take it down. But the words had already been spoken. The questions had already been asked. And they could not be taken back.

The Gulf states have learned a bitter lesson in this war. They have learned that the American security umbrella is not protection - it is a target. They have learned that the weapons they purchased do not shield them; they make them accomplices. They have learned that the alliance they built over decades can be discarded in an instant when Washington’s priorities shift.

And they have learned that there is no easy exit from this trap. If they expel American forces, they face Iran alone. If they keep them, they remain targets. If they try to build independent defenses, they face American pressure to maintain interoperability with US systems. If they seek alternative partners - China, Turkey, Russia - they risk provoking Washington.

But something has changed. The silence that once covered the region has been broken. A man from the inner circle of Emirati power stood up and asked the American president: Who gave you the authority?

The question will not go away. It will echo through the Gulf’s calculations for years to come. Because the Gulf states have learned something in this war that they cannot unlearn: the protection they paid for was never protection. The security they purchased was never security. The alliance they trusted was never mutual.

The Accounting

There will be an accounting. There is always an accounting. The Gulf states wrote checks for trillions of dollars. They received in return the privilege of being used as a battlefield. The billionaires who stayed silent will answer for their silence. The leaders who signed the deals will answer for their naivety. And the president who demanded the ransom will answer for his greed.

But the accounting that matters is not divine. It is geopolitical. The United States has squandered the trust of its most important Arab allies. The Gulf states are now actively diversifying their international partnerships. China is waiting. Turkey is waiting. Even Russia is waiting.

The war on Iran was supposed to be a demonstration of American power. Instead, it has become a demonstration of American unreliability. The Gulf states will not forget. They will not forgive. And they will not make the same mistake twice.

A Final Word from the Region

I write this from the West, but my heart is in the Gulf. I spent years of my career watching the sovereign wealth funds flow into American coffers. I saw the deals signed, the bases expanded, the promises exchanged. I believed - as the Gulf states believed - that the American security umbrella was real.

It was not.

The war has exposed the truth. The United States does not protect its allies. It uses them. It extracts their wealth, occupies their territory, and then leaves them to burn when the fire it started reaches their borders.

The Gulf states paid trillions for protection. They received destruction in return. They asked for security. They received a ransom note.

The question that Khalaf Al Habtoor asked - the question that was deleted but not forgotten - is the question that every Gulf leader should be asking today: Who gave you the authority?

The answer, when it comes, will not be comfortable. But it will be the truth.